Project Finance Modelling

3 days 17-19 Jul 2017, Hong Kong Hong Kong $4,490.00 Download brochure Add to basket

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Overview

FTS Eligible - Financial Training Scheme for Singaporean citizens and PRs only (more information)

Course objectives

This course will review lessons on valuation, risk assessment and forecasting that can be derived from the financial crisis. Participants will discuss mistakes made in valuing sub-prime loans and other famous valuation errors. This provides context for other subjects in the course.

Summary of course content

  • Valuation lessons from the current financial crisis
  • How structured financial models can be created that clearly define risks and value without being overly complex
  • The fundamental factors that underlie valuation and how can they be used in practice
  • What lies behind multiples such as the P/E and the EV/EBITDA ratios and how these multiples can be used in valuation
  • How to effectively present risk analysis in valuation analysis models
  • Whether Monte Carlo simulation and mathematical techniques can realistically be used to assess risk and compute value
  • The valuation of debt and measurement of debt capacity to provide alternative ways to value investments
  • The creation of models specifically used to evaluate LBOs, project finance and M&A

Methodology

Case studies, hands-on analysis and template models will be used as the primary teaching tools in the programme. If you are interested in practical mechanics of excel (macros, combo boxes, offset and indirect functions etc.) these can also be discussed after the course.

Other than the instruction in how to build, use and analyse financial models, you will receive a comprehensive suite of financial modeling software on CD that includes a number of template models and Excel add-ins.

The software consists of corporate models that accept historic financial data and generate alternative valuation measures; M&A models that consolidate two companies using alternative financing assumptions and produce accretion and dilution estimates; project finance models that measure the effect of alternative elements in a cash flow waterfall including debt service reserves, junior debt, covenants, defaults and pre-payments; LBO models that measure the debt capacity of a transaction; option pricing models that account for alternative structures; and debt valuation spreadsheets, Monte Carlo simulation models, tornado diagram and sensitivity analysis.

Computer-based exercises

This course will make extensive use of modelling exercises in Excel®
All delegates should bring their own laptops loaded with Microsoft Excel® 2010 or later to facilitate inclass
studies and exercises.

Free CD to take-away

Delegates will receive a comprehensive suite of financial modelling software on a CD that includes a number of template models and excel add-ins.

Pre-course survey

Book early and fill in our pre-course survey to ensure your specific needs are met in the course by the trainer.

FTS Eligible

This programme is approved for listing on the Financial Training Scheme (FTS) Programme Directory and is eligible for FTS claims subject to all eligibility criteria being met.

Please note that in no way does this represent an endorsement of the quality of the training provider and programme. Participants are advised to assess the suitability of the programme and its relevance to participants’ business activities or job roles.

The FTS is available to eligible entities, at a 50% funding level of programme fees, subject to a cap of $2,000/participant/programme and all eligibility criteria being met. FTS claims may only be made for programmes listed on the FTS Programme Directory with specified validity period. Please refer to www.ibf.org.sg for more information.

Who should attend

  • Corporate Finance/Corporate Treasury
  • Capital Markets
  • Audit/Product Control/Risk Management/ALM
  • Research and Analysis
  • Sales and Trading
  • Investment Management
  • Origination
  • Securitisation/Syndication
  • Structured Finance
  • Money Markets/Repo
  • Systems Programming
  • Funding
  • Government/Agency Funding and Investment
  • Regulation/Compliance/Documentation
  • Instructors

    We work with a series of expert instructors, please select the course location of interest to review the credentials of who will be delivering the programme.

    Hong Kong
    Alan Brooke

    The course instructor has over 20 years’ experience in a wide range of roles in finance. He has delivered training courses on behalf of Euromoney Training since 2006.

    He trained as a Chartered Accountant at KPMG in South Africa and New Zealand, before moving into industry with Ford Motor Company. He held various positions there in financial analysis, budgeting and forecasting, until he was appointed Sales Planning Manager, responsible for forecasting models, production planning and supply logistics. He joined a multinational private consultancy group in Australia, as their General Manager Finance; in this role, he guided the group through a period of major change and financial turnaround.

    For the past 15 years, he has worked as a freelance financial modeller, trainer and analyst for a range of blue-chip clients. Assignments have included structured financing for a large-scale property development, multi-billion pound franchise bids in the UK rail industry, forecasting models for private equity investment in the waste management sector, and a number of PFI transactions in the utilities, health and support services sectors.

    With an extensive accounting background, the instructor brings accounting knowledge and analytical skills to transactions and financial modelling.

    He has built up a great deal of experience in financial modelling in different sectors, including property development, insurance market, outsourcing and utilities in the transport, gas, electricity and water sectors, as well as building financial models in central government departments. He has built, developed and used models to support commercial negotiations, analyse risk, test scenarios and forecast results.

    Clients for whom the instructor has delivered training on behalf of Euromoney Training include Marfin Popular Bank (Cyprus), Finansbank and AK Bank (Turkey), Sace SPA (Italy), BayernLB Bank (Germany) and Access Bank (Nigeria). He also delivers training courses for Euromoney Training’s sister firm, DC Gardner Training, in many parts of the world.

    Venue

    Hong Kong

    4-5 Star Hotel in Hong Kong

    All of our courses are held in 4 – 5 star hotels, chosen for their location, facilities and level of service. You can be assured of a comfortable, convenient learning environment throughout the duration of the course.

    Due to the variation in delegate numbers, we will send confirmation of the venue to you approximately 2 weeks before the start of the course. Course fees include training facilities, documentation, lunches and refreshments for the duration of the programme. Delegates are responsible for arranging their own accommodation, however, a list of convenient hotels (many at specially negotiated rates) is available upon registration.

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    Agenda

    Day 1

    Introduction and course objectives

    • Brief overview of project finance
    • Review of models and their objectives

    Overall model structures inputs and assupmtions

    • Principles of model structure
    • Best financial modelling practice
    • Overall structure of the model
    • Separation of inputs, calculations and outputs
    • Logic flow within the model
    • Use of flags to control timing factors
    • Set-up to facilitate flexibility
    • Accommodating multiple options at early stages of project
    • Checks and totals, and error reporting
    • Building assumptions off the term sheets
    • Using the assumptions sheets as a sign-off document
    • Building in ability to change and work changes through the model
    • Restricting ranges of inputs and validation criteria
    • Use of switches to allow option selection
    • Version control
    • Use of the corkscrew technique
    • Tracking changes

    Exercise: Creating an assumptions input sheet with built-in flexibility

    Revenue and cost build-ups

    • Build-up of construction or other capital costs
    • Correct matching of units
    • Treatment of fixed and variable costs
    • Use of Maintenance Reserve accounts
    • Use of lookup functions to change expenditure timings
    • Building in sensitivities
    • Pricing assumptions

    Example: Model with flexible capital expenditure and sensitivity functions

    Inflation/escalation factors

    • Principles of modelling inflation escalation
    • Use of indices
    • Controlling start time of inflationary pattern
    • Applying multiple rates to different cost and revenue items
    • Varying inflation rates over life of the project

    Exercise: Model the build-up of costs and income, and apply growth and inflation indices

    Day 2

    Interest and fee calculations

    • Circularity, consequences and solutions
    • Calculations of interest and fees
    • Timing of payments
    • Capitalised fees and interest

    Example: Solving a circular reference in a given cash flow model

    Exercise: Create a DSRA calculation, solving for a circulation reference

    Taxes

    • Different types of taxes
    • Tax treatment of costs
    • Allowing for deductibility and non-deductibility
    • Capital allowances
    • Cash vs. Accounting treatment
    • Tax losses generated
    • Timing of tax payments installments
    • Modelling techniques

    Example: Review of tax calculations from an actual project finance model

    Leverage, risk and cash flow

    • Leverage, risk and the debt/equity equation
    • Calculating the cost of different types of debt capital
    • Cost of equity capital
    • Concept and calculation of the weighted average cost of capital (WACC)
    • Use of Debt Service Reserve Accounts (DSRA)
    • Use of the cash flow waterfall
    • Modelling issues arising
      • Timing of debt and equity funding
      • Fee costs, upfront and spread
      • Interest costs, capitalised interest
      • Debt repayment profiles
      • Refinancing at various stages of deal
      • Debt repayment profiles and built-in options
      • Dividend and other equity returns
      • Constraints on dividend payments
      • Overall risk profile

    Exercise: Creation of cash flow waterfall to reflect debt costs, DSRA, repayment profiles, and returns to equity under constraints

    Day 3

    Comparing actuals to previously modelled results

    • Separate runs and variation of inputs
    • Actual results compared to forecast
    • Ability to compare results
    • Reviewing future implications of variances

    Exercise: Demonstration of setting up a comparison sheet to review and compare different versions of a model

    Creation of balance sheet

    • Link between modelled cash flow and P&L
    • Key balance sheet items and their calculation
    • Non-cash items: depreciation, deferred tax
    • Assumptions required to be made
    • Modelling techniques to ensure the balance sheet always balances
    • Use of existing figures or opening balance sheets
    • Creation of check totals

    Exercise: From a given P&L and cash flow statement, calculate balance sheet

    Derivation of ratios

    • Cash available for distribution and free cash flow
    • Debt service coverage reserve ratios
    • Interest cover ratios
    • Equity returns
    • IRR/XIRR/MIRR and NPV/XNPV calculations

    Exercise: From a given cash flow and balance sheet, calculate the above ratios

    Sensitivity analysis

    • Purpose of sensitivity analysis
    • Break-even calculations
    • Stress-testing of model
    • Varying inputs to assess effect on results
    • Use of Excel tools, including goal seek, data tables and scenario manager

    Exercise: From a given model of cash flows, P&L and balance sheet, calculate effect of varying inputs to a given degree, and stress-test model to break-even

    Risk Reviews

    • Use of risk matrices
    • Relationship to model and sensitivity analysis
    • Probability analysis
    • Risk-adjusted returns – equity'sview
    • Risk-adjusted returns – lender's view

    Exercise: For a given model, calculate risk-adjusted returns from potential risks in the project

    Documenting the model

    • Setting up base case model
    • Recording changes to model structure
    • Recording changes to assumptions
    • User guides
    • Data books
    • Running scenarios: Descriptions, comparisons to base, version control

    Wrap-up

    • Overall review
    • Key points to re-iterate
    • Further reading
    • Brief introduction to further exercises
    • Final questions and issues to discuss
    Why us


    We have a combined experience of over 60 years providing learning solutions to the world’s major organisations and are privileged to have contributed to their success. We view our clients as partners and focus on understanding the needs of each organisation we work with to tailor learning solutions to specific requirements.

    We are proud of our record of customer satisfaction. Here is why you should choose us to help you achieve your goals and accelerate your career:

    • Quality – our clients consistently rate our performance ‘excellent’ or ‘outstanding’. Our average overall score awarded to us by our clients is nine out of ten.
    • Track record – we have delivered training solutions for 95% of worlds’ top 100 banks and have trained over 250,000 professionals.
    • Knowledge – our 150 strong team of industry specialist trainers are world leading financial leaders and commentators, ensuring our knowledge base is second to none.
    • Reliability – if we promise it, we deliver it. We have delivered over 20,000 events both in person and online, using simultaneous translation to delegates from over 180 countries.
    • Recognition – we are accredited by the British Accreditation Council and the CPD Certification Service. In an independent review by Feefo we scored 96% on service and 95% on product