Analysis and valuation in the energy sector is complicated by its division into three main segments – upstream exploration and production (E&P), ‘midstream’ gathering and transmission, and ‘downstream’ refining and marketing. The sector also has unique and highly industry-specific ‘metrics’ for performance measurement and valuation. Finally, substantial changes in organizational forms – especially the division of E&P from midstream and downstream assets, and the further organization of ‘pure-play’ gathering/transmission assets – are a further challenge.
In appraising potential E&P investments, IPO opportunities, or M&A situations, a familiarity with reserve modeling is critical. Cash flows must be modeled so as to reflect the differing natures of developed vs. non-developed, producing vs. non-producing, and proven vs. probable and possible reserves. Non-production ‘hard assets’ and unexplored production acreage also need to be included in any valuation. Cash flow models reflecting these differing assets, and which break down value into ‘going concern’ vs. ‘liquidation scenarios’, are invaluable in making analytical judgments.
Moreover, the breadth of the sector requires an understanding of the valuation of ‘midstream’ and ‘downstream’ assets. Investors are increasingly expressing strong preferences for ‘pure-play’ exposures, and such assets can have very attractive sustainable cashflow characteristics, which can be utilized to fund “upstream” activities. Comparable firm and comparable transaction analysis is critical in this area.
The course will:
- Provide practical exposure to reserve DCF modeling techniques, and contrast the different categories of reserves, both in 'going concern' and liquidation scenarios, and how these are modelled
- Review methodologies for valuing non-reserve hard assets, as well as midstream and downstream activities
- Define key industry-specific metrics, such as BOE, MMCFE, DACF, EBITDAX, distribution yields, etc.
- Highlight public market valuation of upstream, midstream, downstream, and integrated assets, as well as explore structures such as royalty trusts and gathering/transmission MLPs
- Illustrate these techniques in the M&A context, while exploring credit issues and the financing of energy firms