Budgeting and Forecasting Strategies in the Oil and Gas Industry
Laying the foundation - global energy outlook, supply and demand balance brought about by a rapidly changing world
- Setting the stage for finance and accounting strategies for oil and gas companies
- Changing technology and the role of shale oil and gas plays
- The U.S. energy renaissance and implications for global competitiveness
- Global energy outlook
- Energy supply and demand issues
- Current views on energy price projects
- Human capital shortages, unproven technology, and unknown geology
- Future trends of oil and gas
How oil and gas companies differ from other industries and key issues in oil and gas accounting and finance
To understand the financial prospects of an oil and gas company, one must understand how they differ from other industries and key issues related to reporting.
- Special accounting treatment for oil and gas companies
- Analysing the different accounting methods and financial statements
- Determining the proper classification of oil and gas costs: capitalise, expense, exploration costs, development costs, production costs
- Revenue recognition: when is it revenue and when it is not?
- Fair value and industry accounting issues
Observing the role of International Accounting Standards (IAS) and future issues as they apply to oil and gas companies
- Overview of critical issues related to international petroleum accounting
- Observing the role of International Accounting Standards (IAS) in the future of financial statements for oil and gas companies
- Where they came from
- What does it mean to companies now and in the future
- Value chain and significant IAS accounting issues
- Upstream oil and gas specific differences between IAS and U.S. GAAP
Analysis of international oil companies financial statements part one
This two part session will continue with topics covered in the prior session on IAS by applying them to financial statement analysis. Delegates will learn ten important factors in reading and analysing the financial statements of international oil companies. The main focus will be on learning how to analyse the companys success in exploring and producing oil and gas reserves and understanding the concept of competitive benchmarking of the company against other energy companies. This session is helpful in gaining knowledge as a business professional working in the energy industry, a potential investor or lender in the oil and gas industry and an individual seeking employment in this industry. Delegates will analyse the financial statements of a leading international oil company.
Topics covered include:
- Energy ratios specific to oil and gas companies
- Reading oil and gas reserve disclosures
- Analysing production replacement and reserve replacement
- Analysing finding costs and reserve replacement costs
- Reserve life index
- Key profitability indicators
Optimising Budget Models and Capital Investment Analysis
Analysis of international oil companies financial statements part two
The second part of this two-part session will continue with topics covered in the first part. Delegates will analyse the financial statements of leading international oil companies.
- Case studies and Excel applications
- Bloomberg applications
This session will cover the critical topic of competitive benchmarking. When companies compare themselves to their peers, they usually have a number of the following significant advantages over outsiders:
- They thoroughly understand the industry or sector
- They often have employees that have recently transferred from the peer companies (this provides them an inside look at costs, wages, management, special problems, and a host of other perspectives this information is difficult to obtain for individual investors)
- If a competitor produces a product, the benchmarking companies often have the engineering wherewithal to reverse engineer, test, and thoroughly understand what the competition has, has done, or is doing
Capital budgeting and risk analysis in the oil and gas industry
Valuation of oil and gas assets is a critical and challenging process. The uncertainty of production, prices, capital costs and construction delays, among other factors, makes it difficult to value projects. In this session, leading analytical skills and techniques used in Excel will be discussed and illustrated using real case studies on financial forecasting and analysis.
- Recap of traditional capital budgeting methods
- Net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), modified IRR, payback period and discounted payback period
- Advanced analytical skills, techniques, and challenges in oil and gas capital budgeting including:
- Oil and gas production, oil and gas prices, cost of capital, construction costs, and start-up delay
Case study applications and open discussion of crucial issues
Attendees will analyse case studies of actual international firms operating in the oil and gas industry to further explore issues covered in the sessions covered today. Attendees will also have the opportunity to discuss crucial issues facing them with delegates in attendance. Open discussion will follow with suggestions and recommendations. This is an excellent opportunity to interact in a stimulating group setting with other participants.
Advanced Capital Budgeting and Risk Analysis and Expert Issues about Derivatives and Risk Management in the Oil and Gas Industry
Advanced capital budgeting and risk analysis in the oil and gas industry
Would you like to master financial forecasting and analysis? If so, this session is a 'must' in gaining the cutting-edge skills necessary for sophisticated financial analysis and modelling of oil and gas projects. In this session, Monte Carlo simulation will be used to model uncertainty for key value drivers of large oil and gas projects. Monte Carlo simulation is a powerful tool that can help evaluate what can happen to an investments future cash flows and summarise the possibilities in a probability distribution. This is particularly helpful in oil and gas project analysis since the outcomes from large investment projects are often the result of the interaction of a number of interrelated factors (or value drivers) that are highly uncertain.
- Risk analysis of oil and gas projects using Excel
- Sensitivity analysis, sensitivity charts, and scenario analysis
- Advanced risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation
- Distribution fitting and correlation assumptions
- 5 basic rules of thumb in choosing probability distributions
- Three popular probability distributions for use in simulation models
- Displaying and understanding output - tornado charts, etc
- Modelling energy prices in capital budgeting risk analysis
- Techniques and challenges in modelling energy prices
- Modelling energy prices using mean reverting processes incorporating poisson jumps
- Case studies and Excel applications
- Case study example: Zombie oil and gas wells once abandoned are now profitable again due to technological advances.
Case study applications and open discussion of crucial issues related to advanced capital budgeting and risk analysis: Shale oil and gas drilling project
In this session, delegates will conduct advanced capital budgeting and risk analysis for an actual shale drilling project in the US. Many oil and gas companies around the world are participating in shale drilling projects through joint ventures with US companies. Through the case study analysis, delegates will learn important details about unconventional shale oil and gas exploration and production. Unconventional shale oil and gas exploration and production has only recently become economic with advances in horizontal drilling, drill bit tools such as PDC drill bits, and hydraulic fracturing. This has made these projects economically feasible and zombie oil wells are 'coming back to life' with advances in technology. Risk analysis tools such as Monte Carlo simulation will be used to value shale drilling. Delegates are encouraged to bring laptops to analyse the project using the latest software and analysis techniques.
Current issues about derivatives and risk management in the oil and gas industry
Oil and gas companies are facing many financial risks currently and risk management is a critical issue for these firms. Risk management encompasses the identification and assessment of the risks that materially affect company value and enterprise risk management addresses the implementation of a company-wide strategy to manage those risks.
In this session, participants will learn about the following topics:
- What do we mean by risk management and why do firms manage risks?
- How hedging can increase firm value
- Introduction to terminology and instruments used in the energy derivatives markets
- Energy price volatility, types of derivative markets
- Lessons from hedging mistakes: recent hedging disasters
Advanced topics in hedging and risk management
Do you need more knowledge or want to learn more about derivatives and hedging in this complex industry? If the answer is yes, this session is a must for you. In this session, we pick up where we left off in the last session and cover more advanced topics related to risk management
Topics covered include:
- Hedging, basis risk, and factors affecting basis
- Petroleum and natural gas price risks and risk management strategies
- Options (calls, puts, collars, floors, caps)
- Energy swaps
- Value-at-Risk (VAR) and Cashflow-at-Risk (CAR)
- The Greeks (delta, vega, theta, rho, and gamma) and what they mean
- Energy trading
Advanced Topics in Valuation of Oil and Gas Companies
Valuation of oil and gas companies using relative valuation using market comparables part one
- Introduction to relative valuation for oil and gas companies
- Valuation of oil and gas companies using the method of comparables
- Valuing an IPO
- Most commonly used valuation ratios (multiples) and DCF valuation techniques for oil and gas companies
- Enterprise valuation using EBITDA and EBITDX multiples
- EBITDA and firm free cash flow
- Why use EBITDA/EBITDX multiples rather than cash flow multiples?
Valuation of oil and gas companies using relative valuation using market comparables part two
- Valuing a privately held firm
- The effect of risk and growth potential on valuation multiples
- Adjusting the multiple valuation metric for the private oil and gas firm discount
- Equity valuation of an oil and gas firm using the price earnings (PE) multiple
- Valuing a division using the PE method example for Exxon Mobils chemical division
- Case study applications
Case study: Valuation of ExxonMobils acquisition of XTO energy using relative valuation
In this session, we will focus on valuation of a fairly recent acquisition Exxon Mobils purchase of XTO Energy. Was XTO worth the $41 billion offered by ExxonMobil? There are many different methods by which to value firms in the industry; often other industry firms are used as benchmarks in the valuation process. Several will be explored here. There are five questions to be addressed specifically, they include: (1) What should the acquisition price for XTO shares have been? (2) Which comparable firm is the best comparison firm for XTO? (3) Why did ExxonMobil want to acquire XTO? (4) Based on the analysis, did ExxonMobil overpay for XTO or get a bargain? And (5) What additional information could help with this analysis?
Open discussion of crucial issues from days 1 through 4
In this final session of day 4, delegates will have the opportunity to further explore issues covered in the course. Attendees can choose cases to analyse that most closely match their areas of interest and will have the opportunity to work in a stimulating group setting with other participants. Delegates can share experiences, make suggestions, and query the group for their insights on topics of high concern in the oil and gas industry.
Advanced Topics in International Accounting Standards and US GAAP for Oil and Gas Companies
Accounting for hedging under IFRS IAS 39 and US GAAP financial accounting standards (FAS) 133
What are the current accounting standards as they relate to risk management? In this session, we will discuss these very issues as they relate to US GAAP and IAS
Topics included cover:
- How should a company account to its shareholders for the derivatives it holds?
- Example of a speculating position and hedging position
- FAS 133 and IAS 39 (fair value hedge, cash flow hedge, speculative transaction) including definition of hedges, accounting of hedges, and criteria for hedging
- Measuring hedge effectiveness under FAS 133 and IAS 39.
Case study applications in hedging and risk management for oil and gas and accounting applications
Strategies to maximise value in the global oil and gas industry value chain
Mergers and acquisitions continue to be a feature of the global oil and gas industry landscape. At the same time we have seen major integrated companies demerging. What are the motives and are these strategies actually creating value? Understanding these trends will help your company make value-enhancing strategic decisions in this competitive industry for future success. In this session, we will discuss the pros and cons and evaluate these strategies energy companies are using for value creation.
- Strategies employed: mergers, acquisitions and demerging
- How to unlock value from the energy value chain
- New entrants and evolving competitive environment
- Future strategies and best practices for success
- Case study examples
In this final session, delegates will have the opportunity to further explore issues covered in the course
Course summary and close